The scene is set for Darling

This is a posthumous Brown budget. Let’s not forget he finished the Spending Review last year, but held it over to now updating it now and again. So you may see Darling’s lips move, but we will be hearing Brown’s voice. We will be blogging live on this, but we’re aware of the pit-falls. Here are the ingredients of a Brown budget…

1. The speech. Normally a ploy to wrong-foot the Opposition and set the press on the wrong scent. The real story will only come out once we have seen the documents (made available when he sits down) and studied the footnotes. Remember the 2p on tax cut that never was? We can expect more of this here. 

2. The timing. All newspapers will devote reams of coverage, but have just a few hours to digest two huge reports thanks to the outrageous 3.30pm start. It’s a great chance to manipulate the press. The media have to jump one way – and are committed thereafter. So if you set them on the wrong scent, they’ll find it hard to go back to the readers and say “we was duped”.   

3. The avalanche. Why the Spending Review and Pre-Budget Report in one day? Both are substantial documents which each merit much scrutiny. Either Brown wants to minimise our exposure to Darling, or to bury bad news in one day. We’ll know more soon. 

4. The lollipop. There will be a teaser in here, to get the headlines. We know about the inheritance tax review, and the crackdown on private equity (not that the non doms would be liable for such a crackdown). But expect daft giveaways, designed to mislead journalists. 

5. The weasel. There is always a sneaky little tax rise. The pension fund raid – the centrepiece of the 1997 budget - was dressed up as “abolition of dividend tax credit for pension funds”. Even now, people refer to it as a £5bn-a-year raid when it’s more like £8bn. But this was disguised – deeply so. It was a weasel move. So if there’s another one this time, don’t expect to read it in tomorrow’s papers. It takes a forensic accountant to root out the story in a Brown budget.

So your intrepid team will be looking out for

• The Deficit – will it be the worst in the EU15?
• Tax rises – dare he?
• Defence spending – will it go down as a share of state spending?
• North Sea Oil – has his tax raid backfired and screwed up exploration?
• Corporation tax - will he make another raid on companies?

Stay tuned.

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